Booming: Unemployment Drops to Lowest Level Since 2000

06 May, 2018, 00:00 | Author: Kathy Ellis
  • US job market: even solid figures can be disappointing

The year-over-year increase in the monthly average is +13.0%.

The number of unemployed people, at 6.3 million, also dipped over the month.

The unemployment rate is an incomplete indicator, since it excludes all who haven't sought a job over the previous four weeks.

Furthermore, there is another measure of the unemployment rate calculated by the BLS that is broader in scope and habitually higher.

President Donald Trump cheered the drop in the unemployment rate on Friday, May 4. The unemployment rate should not be treated as a tell-all for the health of our economy.

"We are in a demographically induced tight labor market", Brusuelas said.

It might be that 4 percent unemployment is the new 5 percent unemployment: good, but not good enough. "That hasn't been done in a long time. we're at full employment".

The implications are being reveled in outbreaks of labor unrest over compensations levels.

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But average hourly earnings could be understating wage inflation.

Coming into this month, "wages showed a moderate 2.7 percent annual increase", NPR's John Ydstie reported. We've been going through different versions of this for a few years now, as unemployment first hit a 10-, then a 16-, and finally an 18-year low.

Mining employment increased by 8,000 jobs during the month, but employment was little changed in construction, retail and wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities and government, the BLS said.

The increase in new jobs last month was spearheaded by professional businesses.

The year-to-date total gain has been +799,000. Trump said on Twitter, also denouncing a continuing investigation into his campaign's ties to Russian Federation. The level of jobs in civil undertakings has now caught up with its peak from before (in 2007), at about 1.0 million.

Household disposable income increased at a rate of 3.4 percent in the first quarter, accelerating from the fourth quarter's 1.1 percent pace. The number of discouraged workers was 408,000, a decrease of 47,000 from a year earlier.

He said tightening labor markets argue that the current highly simulative monetary conditions of lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve are no longer warranted and the jobs report reinforces RBC's forecast that the fed funds rate range, now at 1.50% to 1.75%, will continue to be hiked by 25 basis points (0.25%) each quarter through next year, finishing 2019 at 3.25% to 3.50%.

The U.S. Labor Department cited better-than-average unemployment claims in ME and Colorado as a mark of the strong numbers. Any figure less than 300,000 for weekly initial jobless claims is considered good. "Nearly every executive we are talking to about positions with our clients has one or more competing opportunities to consider".


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